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sexta-feira, 27 de janeiro de 2012

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

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London Market Report
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US data, Greek talks weigh on FTSE 100

Market Movers
techMARK 1,957.14 -0.72%
FTSE 100 5,733.45 -1.07%
FTSE 250 10,854.72 -0.50%

With economic growth in the world's largest economy surprising to the downside, miners and oil stocks were sold off on Friday, dragging the Footsie near to its lowest levels of the day by the close. Meanwhile, uncertainty in regards to debt-swap talks in Greece continued to weigh on investors' minds.

While US economic activity accelerated in the final three months of the year, the economy expanded at a slower rate than expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with forecasts for at least 3% growth. GDP increased by just 1.8% in third quarter.

Over in Greece, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents private-sector holders of Greek bonds, has offered to accept a 70% haircut on its debt, according to remarks from Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Josef Ackermann in an interview with German media outlet N-TV. Ackermann described the offer as “attractive” and insisted that everyone has to contribute.

KAZAKHMYS, BP LEAD RESOURCE STOCKS LOWER

Mining giant Kazakhmys was a heavy faller after Credit Suisse said that is not convinced by the stock's apparently cheap valuation. The broker also said that given its long-dated volume growth (from 2015 onwards) and cost pressures, earnings and cash flow growth is expected to be negative over the next three years. Antofagasta and Rio Tinto were also sold off.

Polymetal International dipped after Russia and Kazakhstan-focused gold producer Polyus Gold quashed rumours that it is considering a merger between the two. Polymetal shares surged on the news yesterday.

Oil giant BP dropped after failing to get the US courts to rule wholly in the UK firm's favour regarding the scope of its indemnity obligations to Transocean, the owner of the Deepwater Horizon rig which exploded in April 2010, claiming the lives of 11 people and causing the largest offshore oil spill in US history. The court did rule, however, that BP does not owe Transocean indemnity to the extent Transocean is held liable for punitive damages or civil penalties relating to the US Clean Water Act.

FTSE 100 peer BG also fell in afternoon trading, while Premier Oil and Afren led the decline on the FTSE 250.

High street retailer Next was in the top spot, helped by AlphaValue which upgraded the stock from add to buy and lifted the price target from 3,467.6p to 3,481.1p.

In other broker news, Imperial Tobacco was in demand after Citi reiterated its buy rating on the cigarette-making giant, but a downgrade was weighing on the share price of hotels group InterContinental after UBS cut its rating from neutral to sell.

Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland held up relatively well, just 0.25% higher at the close, in spite of the controversial £963,000 bonus given to its Chief Executive Stephen Hester. This is probably the most politically charged pay award amongst all UK listed companies, not least because the Prime Minister has to give his personal approval for the payment.

FTSE 250 MOVERS: AFRICAN BARRICK GOLD SHINES

Gold miner African Barrick Gold was a high riser on the second-tier index after hiking its previous resource estimate fourfold for the Tusker deposit at the Nyanzaga Project in Tanzania.

However, it was financial software provider Misys that was the best performer, rising over 7%, offsetting yesterday's tumble after its interim results missed forecasts.

Shares of Internet and catalogue home shopping specialist N. Brown were wanted after UBS upgraded its rating on the stock from neutral to buy.

EasyJet rose after AlphaValue lifted its target on the stock from 463.9p to 466.6p while UBS raised its target from 450p to 490p.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
Next (NXT) 2,639.00p +1.73%
Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT) 2,289.00p +1.60%
ICAP (IAP) 345.60p +1.47%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,260.00p +1.26%
Carnival (CCL) 1,920.00p +1.00%
British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY) 677.00p +0.82%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 1,173.00p +0.60%
Evraz (EVR) 460.00p +0.57%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,355.00p +0.44%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 541.10p +0.30%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Antofagasta (ANTO) 1,348.00p -3.02%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 1,160.00p -2.85%
BG Group (BG.) 1,430.50p -2.69%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 1,321.00p -2.65%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,970.00p -2.57%
BP (BP.) 464.55p -2.56%
Wolseley (WOS) 2,219.00p -2.42%
Polymetal International (POLY) 1,125.00p -2.34%
Xstrata (XTA) 1,104.00p -2.26%
GKN (GKN) 209.80p -2.24%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Misys (MSY) 326.80p +7.04%
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 515.50p +5.31%
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 155.60p +5.06%
Telecom Plus (TEP) 682.50p +4.28%
Stobart Group Ltd. (STOB) 127.00p +3.76%
Chemring Group (CHG) 387.30p +2.24%
Morgan Crucible Co (MGCR) 317.60p +2.22%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 243.10p +2.19%
Kier Group (KIE) 1,384.00p +1.76%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 679.50p +1.72%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Premier Oil (PMO) 418.30p -3.60%
Afren (AFR) 124.00p -3.58%
Cobham (COB) 182.80p -3.33%
Allied Gold Mining (ALD) 145.00p -3.33%
Bumi (BUMI) 847.50p -3.14%
Mondi (MNDI) 516.50p -3.10%
Senior (SNR) 182.50p -2.87%
PayPoint (PAY) 542.50p -2.86%
Talvivaara Mining Company (TALV) 328.20p -2.81%
DS Smith (SMDS) 235.00p -2.77%


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US GDP numbers knock European stocks

Greek bondholders still locked in settlement talks
-US GDP numbers send equities down
-Italy’s 10-year bond yields fall below 6%, Spain’s under 5%.

FTSE 100: -0.97%
Mibtel-30: -0.81%
Dax 30: -0.36%
Cac 40: -1.13%
SMI: -1.02%
Ibex 35: -0.62%
Euro Stoxx 600: -0.94%

The major European stock markets all closed lower on Friday as investors began taking profits and US GDP figures gave market watchers cause for concern.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index entered a bull market yesterday, that is a rise of 20% above a previous 52-week low. The low in question was in September last year, the rise since then has made sell-offs inevitable as investors tightened their stop losses to capture the gains.

Also weighing on investors’ minds were figures from the US Commerce Department which indicated the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the final three months of last year. The figure will be subject to revision as more data is received, nevertheless it still came in behind expectations of around 3%.

However, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index for the US gave the highest reading for 11 months in January, rising to 75 from 69.9 in December. This was ahead of expectations.

The other big issue facing world markets is what shape an eventual deal between Greece and its private sector creditors will take. The EU’s economic and finance commissioner, Ollie Rehn, said a deal was “very close”.

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, was more forthright today, suggesting previous offers from the creditors had not been “appropriate” and demanding they take an even greater haircut than the 69% they have so far suggested.

EQUITIES

The chairman of EADS, the owner of Airbus, said in an interview with Le Figaro that the company has “enormous” amounts of cash, giving it the ability to make acquisitions. The stock gained 0.65% in Paris.

French banks were on the back foot following the release of a research note from JP Morgan Cazenove, BNP Paribas (-3.4%) had a particularly bad day.

The car makers, Daimler (-1.6%) and Peugeot (-4.2%), also struggled.

From a sector stand-point, the best performers on the Stoxx 600 were: financial services (+0.23%) and real estate (+0.25%). The biggest fallers were basic resources (-1.76%) and automobiles and parts (-1.85%).

BONDS

There was significant news on Italian and Spanish debt. Benchmark 10-year bond yields fell below 6% in Italy to hit 5.9% by the close, the lowest since the beginning of September.

The interest rate on Spanish 10-year bonds fell to 4.97%, the lowest since October.

Both numbers indicate the perception of risk within the Eurozone is lessening.

MACROECONOMY

Spanish unemployment rose to 22.9% in quarter four, above expectations.  Spanish retail sales fell 5.4% on the year in December (Consensus: -5.9%).

German import prices rose by 0.3% on the month in December (Consensus: 0.3%).  The 3 month moving average of the Eurozone’s money supply (M3) slowed to 2.1% on the year.

OTHER MARKETS

Front month Brent crude futures were up by 0.69% to $111.55 per barrel by 16:55 in London. The euro gained 0.63% against the dollar to reach $1.3192 by 17:58 in Frankfurt.


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US Market Report

Stocks lower after GDP data, Ford tumbles

US stocks opened lower on Friday morning the economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, talks are still ongoing in Greece with private-sector holders of the nation's bonds reportedly now willing to accept a 70% haircut on its debt.

In domestic news, while economic activity accelerated in the final three months of the year, the economy expanded at a slower rate than expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with forecasts for at least 3% growth. GDP increased by just 1.8% in third quarter.

"All in all, looking past some of the volatile movements that are unlikely to persist - such as the sharp rise in inventories and sharp drop in defense spending - today's report provides a picture of modest, if unspectacular, growth in domestic demand," according to Barclays Capital analyst Peter Newland. "Our view remains that the recovery will continue gradually to build momentum, but this is unlikely to shift the dovish stance of monetary policy," he said.

In other news, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President, Jeffrey Lacker, the only member on the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) that voted against Wednesday's Fed decision, said he opposed the decision to keep interest rates low through late 2014 because he believes that economic activity will call for a rate increase. "I expect that as economic expansion continues, even if only at a moderate pace, the federal funds rate will need to rise in order to prevent the emergence of inflationary pressures. This increase in interest rates is likely to be necessary before late 2014," he said.

Big news on the corporate from was car maker Ford, which fell 4% after reporting fourth quarter profits (excluding a one-off tax gain) that fell short of estimates. Nevertheless, the $20.2bn full-year profit figure was its biggest since 1998.

A report from Strategy Analytics shows that Apple has regained the top spot in global smartphone shipments from rival Samsung. Shares nudged higher early on.

Shares of Eastman Chemical were shooting up by 10% after announcing the acquisition of Solutia for $3.38bn.

S&P 500 - Risers
Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) $51.61 +9.53%
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) $44.00 +7.47%
D. R. Horton Inc. (DHI) $14.61 +3.47%
Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL) $17.97 +3.10%
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) $51.72 +2.90%
Halliburton Co. (HAL) $37.04 +2.44%
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) $4.73 +2.38%
Teradyne Inc. (TER) $16.73 +1.95%
Mosaic Company (MOS) $56.42 +1.89%
VeriSign Inc. (VRSN) $36.49 +1.59%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) $20.42 -8.72%
DeVry Inc. (DV) $36.38 -8.36%
Frod Motor Co.(F) $12.05 -5.79%
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) $71.20 -5.29%
Legg Mason Inc. (LM) $25.96 -4.98%
Robert Half International Inc. (RHI) $28.52 -4.17%
Chubb Corp. (CB) $67.56 -3.97%
JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) $12.95 -3.86%
Ace Ltd. (ACE) $69.30 -2.74%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $103.69 -2.72%


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Friday broker round-up

CRH: Liberum Capital downgrades to hold from buy.

Misys: Espirito Santo downgrades from buy to sell, cuts target to 263p from 275p.

Aquarius: Credit Suisse maintains neutral and price target at £2.1.

Lonmin: Credit Suisse maintains underperform and price target at £9.8.

Imperial Tobacco: Citi reiterates buy.

InterContinental Hotels: UBS downgrades from neutral to sell, target of 1,050p unchanged.

Kazakhmys: Nomura maintains neutral stance and 1,200p target.

Smith & Nephew: Nomura reiterates neutral rating and 596p target.

Next: AlphaValue upgrades from add to buy, target lifted from 3,467.6p to 3,481.1p.

Whitbread: UBS cuts target from 2,000p, to 1,950p, buy rating unchanged.

Aveva: Merchant Securities keeps buy rating and sets a target of 1,785p; Panmure Gordon keeps hold rating and 1,604p target.

Barratt Developments: Panmure Gordon reiterates buy recommendation and 158p target.

Marston's: Peel Hunt keeps hold and 100p target; Panmure Gordon keeps buy rating and 130p target.

EasyJet: AlphaValue downgrades from add to reduce target lifted from 463.9p to 466.6p; UBS raises target from 450p to 490p, buy rating unchanged.

N Brown: UBS upgrades from neutral to buy, 280p target unchanged.

Petropavlovsk: UBS cuts target from 1,130p to 1,070p, buy rating kept.

Max Petroleum: Merchant Securities confirms a buy recommendation and 25.2p target.


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ADVFN Newsdesk - Stocks Showing A Lack Of Direction In Early Trading

  ADVFN III World Daily Markets Bulletin  
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US Market Report

Stocks Showing A Lack Of Direction In Early Trading

Stocks are turning in a lackluster performance in early trading on Friday as traders digest a report on U.S. economic growth in the final three months of last year. The major averages have turned mixed on the day after moving modestly lower at the open.

Currently, the major averages remain on opposite sides of the unchanged line. While the Nasdaq is up 3.32 points or 0.1 percent at 2,808.60, the Dow is down 38.98 points or 0.3 percent at 12,695.65 and the S&P 500 is down 1.81 points or 0.1 percent at 1,316.62.

The markets initially reacted negatively to a report from the Commerce Department showing somewhat weaker than expected fourth quarter GDP growth, although selling pressure waned not long after the start of trading.

The report showed that GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the 1.8 percent growth seen in the third quarter.

While GDP growth showed a notable acceleration compared to the previous quarter, economists had been expecting an increase of about 3.1 percent.

Economists were also disappointed that much of the GDP growth in the fourth quarter was due to a positive contribution from private inventory investment

Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "The much bigger than expected positive contribution from inventories in Q4 leaves us even more convinced that growth will slow again to a sub-2% rate in Q1 of this year."

Nonetheless, most of the major sectors are showing only modest moves in early trading, although significant weakness is visible among networking stocks. Juniper Networks (JNPR) is posting a substantial loss after providing disappointing first quarter guidance.

On the other hand, oil service and chemical stocks have moved to the upside, with Eastman Chemical (EMN) leading the chemical sector higher after forecasting better than expected first quarter earnings. Eastman also announced an agreement to acquire Solutia (SOA) for about $3.4 billion.

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region closed mostly higher on Friday, although Japan's Nikkei 225 Index bucked the uptrend and edged down by 0.1 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.3 percent, while Australia's All Ordinaries Index closed up by 0.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets have moved to the downside on the day. While the German DAX Index has dipped by 0.3 percent, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index has fallen by 0.9 percent, and the French CAC 40 Index has slumped by 1.1 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries have shown a lack of direction over the course of the morning. The yield on the benchmark ten-year note is down by less than a basis point at 1.93 percent.


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TSX Poised For Mixed Open

Canadian stocks may edge up at open Friday amid mixed commodities and varied cues from the global equity markets. While most Asian markets ended higher overnight, European shares were struggling to hold on to their recent gains even as Greece continuing its negotiations with its private creditors.

On Thursday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index shed 74.89 points or 0.60 percent to 12,464.32. The price of crude oil was steady above $100, with crude for March adding $0.37 to $100.07 a barrel.

The price of gold was ticking lower Friday morning after gaining nearly 4 percent in the past two sessions. Gold for February edged down $4.10 to $1,722.60 an ounce.

In corporate news from Canada, electronics products company Celestica Inc.(CLS.TO) reported that its fourth quarter IFRS net earnings rose to $69.2 million or $0.32 per share, from $38.4 million or $0.17 per share last year. Adjusted net earnings were $71.1 million or $0.33 per share, compared to $61.3 million or $0.27 per share for the same period last year. Analysts were expecting the company to report earnings of $0.25 per share. For the first quarter, the company guides revenue to be in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion and adjusted net earnings per share to be in the range of $0.18 to $0.24. Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $0.23 per share for the next quarter.  

CIBC reported fiscal 2011 net income of C$2.87 billion, or C$6.71 per share under IRFS standard. Adjusted earnings were restated as C$7.57 per share.

In what could be a positive news for the ailing smart phone maker Research In Motion, V. Prem Watsa - who has been appointed to the board this week - raised his stake in the company to 5.12 percent from the earlier 2.25 percent to become the fourth-largest shareholder in the company. Watsa, who heads Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd, is well known for his turnaround capabilities .

In economic news from south of the border, the U.S. Commerce Department said the economy grew at 2.8 percent the final quarter of 2011, up from the 1.8 percent growth posted for the third quarter. But the growth fell short of the 3.1 percent projected by most economists in what may be a sign that economic recovery is still stagnant.

From the euro zone, Germany's import price inflation eased sharply and for a third consecutive month in December, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed. Inflation eased to 3.9 percent in December from 6 percent in November and 6.8 percent in October. Economists expected the rate to be 3.8 percent.


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European Market Report
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French Market Turns Positive

The French market turned positive in afternoon trading Friday, as talks continue between Greece and its private bondholders, ahead of the key GDP data from the U.S. The major Asian markets closed mixed, while the U.S. index futures are higher.

A deal on restructuring Greece's debt is a pre-condition for securing more aid from its international creditors ahead of March, when the country must repay 14.5 billion euros of maturing debt.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone bluechip stocks is falling 0.01 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 50 index, which includes some major U.K. companies, is losing 0.06 percent.

The CAC 40 is currently advancing 0.11 percent, recovering from early weakness.

BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole are declining 2.8 percent each. Societe Generale is falling 1.9 percent. JPMorgan cut BNP Paribas to "Neutral" from "Overweight."

Peugeot is losing 1 percent and Renault is falling 0.3 percent.

GDF Suez is flat. UBS removed the stock from its "Most Preferred List."

EADS is gaining 1.9 percent. Exane BNP raised the stock to "Outperform" from "Underperform."

Barclays reduced Carrefour to "Underweight" from "Equalweight." According to media reports, the supermarket group is close to firing its Chief Executive Officer Lars Olofsson, and is in talks to replace him with Georges Plassat. The stock is up 2.2 percent.

Elsewhere in Europe, the German DAX is adding 0.31 percent and Switzerland's SMI is gaining 0.02 percent.. The UK's FTSE 100 is falling 0.12 percent.

In economic news, Germany's import price inflation eased sharply and for a third consecutive month in December. Data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that inflation eased to 3.9 percent in December from 6 percent in November and 6.8 percent in October. Economists expected the rate to be 3.8 percent.

In the commodity space, crude for March delivery is adding $0.44 to $100.14 per barrel, while February gold is losing $3.1 to $1723.6 a troy ounce.


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Asia Market Report

Bull Run Continues; Sensex Up 0.9 Percent

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses before ending mostly higher on Friday as the Fed's decision to provide some policy certainty outweighed concerns surrounding Greece's debt talks. The markets in China and Taiwan remain closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said the dovish stance of the central bank and recent policy activism may adversely affect the U.S. economic expansion in the long run. The Fed's latest pledge to keep interest rates near zero through 2014 isn't seen as a "guarantee" that "reacquaints consumers with bad habits, " Warsh reportedly said in a speech in Stanford, California.

Tokyo stocks erased initial gains as weak earnings results clouded the earnings outlook for Japanese companies. The benchmark Nikkei eased 0.1 percent while the broader Topix index shed half a percent.

NEC Corp. plunged 7.1 percent after the electronics giant forecast its third annual loss in four years and unveiled plans to layoff nearly 10 percent of its workforce. Nintendo tumbled 4.1 percent after the videogame maker reported a sharp drop in quarterly earnings and more than tripled its full-year loss forecast.

Nippon Steel fell 3.5 percent after the steelmaker said it swung to a loss in the third quarter, weighed down by a hefty special loss related to stagnant stock market conditions and a marginal growth in revenue. Elpida Memory slumped 7.1 percent on a report that it will likely post an operating loss of 90 billion yen for the April to December period.

Commodity-related stocks advanced, with Inpex, Itochu and Marubeni gaining around 3 percent each after commodities rallied overnight in the wake of Fed's pledge to keep interest rates near zero at least until the middle of 2013.

Australian shares posted modest gains, as traders returning from a holiday the day before lapped up miners, encouraged by strong gains in commodity prices overnight. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.4 percent higher while the broader All Ordinaries index advanced half a percent. Among the major miners, BHP Billiton rose 0.6 percent, Rio Tinto gained 2.1 percent, Newcrest rallied 3.8 percent and Fortescue soared 4.1 percent.

The big four banks closed mixed, with ANZ and Commonwealth rising around 0.3 percent each, while NAB shed half a percent and Westpac edged down marginally. Woodside Petroleum, the nation's biggest oil and gas producer, advanced 1.5 percent on reports it is considering selling part of it stake in the $40 billion Browse liquefied natural gas project in Western Australia. Retailers Wesfarmer and Woolworths ended down between 0.2 percent and 0.6 percent.

Reliance Power also closed on a flat note after the company inked an agreement with RWE Power International of Germany to help double coal production at its captive mines of the Tilaiya ultra-mega power project.

Ranbaxy slumped 6.6 percent on brokerage downgrades after the drug maker agreed to make significant changes in its manufacturing facilities in India and the U.S. as part of a settlement that ends wide-ranging investigations against the company by the U.S. regulatory authorities.

Coal India eased 0.7 percent on reports that it will announce the new set of coal prices this month. Canara Bank tumbled 3.2 percent on posting disappointing Q3 results.

NTPC shed half a percent. The state-run power major said it has received environmental clearance for its meta thermal power project at Kudgi in Bijapur district of Karnataka.

On the global front, other Asian markets swung between gains and losses before ending mostly higher on Friday as the Fed's decision to provide some policy certainty outweighed concerns surrounding Greece's debt talks. The markets in China and Taiwan were closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.


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Forex Top Story
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Dollar Slides As Greece Nears Sovereign Debt Deal

The dollar was back on defense Friday morning, hurt by talk that Greece was close to a deal on a voluntary restructuring of its sovereign debt. Olli Rehn, the vice president of the European Commission, said that a deal should be announced today or over the weekend at the latest.

The dollar dropped to $1.3150 versus the euro, edging back toward a monthly low near $1.32. It's been a rough week for the dollar, which was sitting at a 17-month high of $1.2623 only 11 days ago.

The buck slid to $1.5712 versus the sterling, down fractionally from last night.

Weakness was more pronounced versus the yen, with the dollar dropping to Y76.90 from Y77.50.

Trading on Friday is likely to be impacted by the release of the Commerce Department's initial report on U.S. fourth quarter GDP. Economists expect GDP to increase by about 3.1 percent compared to the 1.8 percent growth seen in the third quarter.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker on Friday explained his dissenting vote at this week's FOMC meeting.

"I dissented because I do not believe economic conditions are likely to warrant an exceptionally low federal funds rate for so long," Lacker said. "I expect that as economic expansion continues, even if only at a moderate pace, the federal funds rate will need to rise in order to prevent the emergence of inflationary pressures. This increase in interest rates is likely to be necessary before late 2014," he added.

Yesterday, a report from the Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims rebounded by a little more than anticipated in the week ended January 21st.

The Labor Department said jobless claims rose to 377,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 356,000, while economists had expected jobless claims to increase to 370,000.


 
 

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Weekly Forex Currency Review

 ADVFN III Weekly FOREX Currency REVIEW 
Global Forex News from ADVFN Supplied by advfn.com
    Friday 27 Jan 2012 12:19:46  
 
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Weekly Market analysis

The Federal Reserve commitment to maintaining ultra-low interest rates will help underpin risk appetite in the short- term and will also curb any dollar demand. There are still substantial risks associated with the European banking sector as sovereign-debt fears persist and fear will intensify again if Greece formally defaults and, especially if fears intensify surrounding Portugal. The Chinese economic outlook will also be an important focus at the start of the new year.

Key events for the forthcoming week

Date

Time (GMT)

Data release/event

Monday January 30th

 

EU Summit

Wednesday February 1st

09.30

UK manufacturing PMI

Wednesday February 1st

15.00

US manufacturing PMI

Friday February 3rd

13.30

US employment report

Dollar:

There will be expectations of solid US growth which will provide some support to capital inflows. The Federal Reserve policies will also be a very important influence and the expected commitment to lower interest rates for an even longer period, coupled with the possibility of further quantitative easing, will undermine yield support and lessen dollar support. International considerations will still play an extremely important role and the US currency will lose defensive support when markets take a more optimistic stance.  The overall pressure for financial de-leveraging will, however, continue in Europe and this will both undermine global growth and trigger underlying dollar demand.

The dollar dipped sharply following the Federal Reserve meeting with five-week lows on a trade-weighted basis, but did find some support at lower levels.

There were no Federal Reserve policy decision surprises with interest rates left on hold.  The statement was, however, significantly more dovish than expected as the majority of participants were expecting Fed Funds to remain at the current extremely low levels until late in 2014 compared with previous expectations of 2013 previously. In his press conference, Fed Chairman Bernanke was also dovish in his outlook despite being slightly more optimistic surrounding near-term economic prospects.  Bernanke stated that further quantitative easing could be considered and, although the Fed adopted an inflation target of 2.0% for the first time, he stated that further easing could be considered even if inflation was above 2.0%.

The dovish statement was important in underpinning risk appetite and was also important in undermining the dollar as it dipped sharply to lows beyond 1.31 against the Euro.  There will be the risk of fresh trade tensions and friction with Europe given the perception that the US will resist forcefully any strengthening of the US currency.

The US jobless claims data recorded an increase to 377,000 in the latest week from 356,000 previously while durable goods orders rose 3.0% in the latest month. The data impact was inevitably limited at this stage as markets continued to consider the Federal Reserve statement and prospect for a continuation of near-zero interest rates. The US currency was still unsettled by the possibility of further quantitative easing as defensive dollar demand remained lower.


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Euro

There will be further relief that the aggressive ECB liquidity operations have managed to stabilise conditions to some extent and ease the immediate threat of a destabilising credit crunch.  The underlying situation is still precarious given exposure to sovereign debt.  There will be further fears surrounding the threat of a Greek default and the rise in Portuguese yields will spark additional fears that Portugal will also move closer to default which would destabilise the Euro area. Whatever the outcome, the ECB will also have to maintain a very aggressive monetary policy to help support the economy and offset the deflation threat which will make it very difficult for the Euro to gain ground.

The Euro continued to recover ground, advancing to 2012 highs against the dollar, but was unable to hold its best levels, especially against the yen.
 
The Euro secured initial support from the latest flash PMI data which recorded an increase in the manufacturing component to 48.7 from 46.9 previously while the services-sector index moved above the 50 level for the first time since the August 2011 release. The data maintained the run of more favourable data seen over the past few weeks and helped ease immediate fears surrounding the Euro-zone outlook, although the Euro area was still dependent on the core economies.

There was further debate surrounding the Greek private-sector debt deal with a suggestion that a new arrangement could be in place by the middle of February. Nevertheless, there was further unease surrounding the situation as default fears intensified with Standard & Poor’s indicating that any agreement was likely to be considered a default.

In the event, there was still a high degree of uncertainty surrounding Greece and no deal was forthcoming with discussions set to continue on Friday.  There were also further concerns surrounding the Portuguese situation as benchmark yields continued to rise to record levels with 10-year yields close to the 15% level.  There were further rumours of pressure on the ECB to take losses on its substantial holdings of Greek bonds which unsettled sentiment in an environment of uncertainty.

There was also further pressure for the ECB to take a more aggressive stance towards interest rates which curbed Euro support.

Yen:

There will be further concerns surrounding the industrial and trade outlook, especially with Japan registering an annual trade deficit for the first time in 16 years.  There will be pressure for the Bank of Japan to boost competitiveness through a weaker currency and there will also be fears surrounding the huge debt burden.  Global risk appetite will be important and the yen will still gain defensive support when fears over the outlook increase. The currency will also gain support from capital repatriation flows out of European bonds.

The dollar initially moved above resistance in the 77 area against the yen on Tuesday and there was a fresh surge in dollar buying which pushed the dollar to near the 78 level for the first time in a month. The dollar was unable to sustain the gains and weakened back to test support below 77.

There no significant policy changes by the Bank of Japan at its latest monetary meeting with interest rates held in a 0.00-0.10% range and no changes to quantitative easing while the growth forecasts for the year ahead were downgraded.

There was speculation that Japan would run a trade deficit for 2011 and this was confirmed in the latest data release on Wednesday with the first annual deficit for 16 years as exports declined by 8% over the year. This undermined yen sentiment on fears over a structural deterioration.

The US data releases later in the week failed to provide any sustained support for the US currency as the potentially positive impact of a firm durable goods release was offset by the pledge of ultra-low Federal Reserve interest rates.

There was a stronger than expected Japanese retail sales release with a 2.5% annual increase in the year to December while the inflation data was broadly in line with expectations with a 0.1% annual decline and no significant policy implications.


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Sterling

Confidence in the UK economy will remain weak following the reported GDP contraction for the fourth quarter. There will be further fears surrounding the outlook for retail sales and the economy will also come under further pressure if the Euro-zone outlook continues to deteriorate. The Bank of England is slightly less pessimistic over the economic outlook, but there is still the potential for additional quantitative easing. The outlook for capital flows will remain mixed as there will be the potential for defensive capital inflows, but these flows could reverse rapidly at current yields. Sterling volatility is liable to increase again.

Sterling generally pushed higher against the dollar with a peak near 1.57 even though gains were generally slow while the UK currency dipped weaker against the Euro as international moves dominated for much of the time.

The headline public-sector borrowing requirement was better than expected with a figure of GBP10.8bn for December from a revised GBP15.1bn previously.  The market focus tended to be on the level of debt which rose above the GBP1trn level for the first time, but the negative Sterling impact was limited.

Bank of England Governor King remained cautious over the economic outlook with a warning that bank lending would remain weak. He also stated that lower inflation would give the bank scope to provide additional quantitative easing if necessary. King, however, was notably less fearful in his general comments on the economy compared with his tone late in 2011 which helped support Sterling.

The headline figure was slightly weaker than expected with a 0.2% fourth-quarter contraction and there will be concerns over the lack of growth in the private sector.  The data will reinforce near-term fears surrounding the economy and the underlying debt trajectory. The Bank of England MPC minutes from January’s meeting recorded a 9-0 vote for keeping interest rates and quantitative easing on hold.  

The minutes did, however, reveal greater divergence in opinion surrounding the outlook for growth and inflation. There was still a lack of confidence in the economic outlook, but several members were more doubtful whether there would be a sustained decline in inflation. In this environment, it will be more difficult to secure unanimous support for any further boost to quantitative easing at February’s meeting.

The latest CBI retail sales survey was substantially weaker than expected with a decline to a three-year low of -22  from +9 the previous month and the data reinforced a lack of confidence in the spending outlook.
 
Swiss franc:

National Bank policies will remain extremely important in the short-term given the on-going debate surrounding the minimum Euro level. There is still the risk that markets will attack the Euro, although there will also inevitably be reluctance to challenge the central bank given the potential for aggressive and unlimited bank intervention. On domestic grounds, there will also still be domestic pressure for the bank to raise the minimum level. There will also be the potential for increased capital flows out of Switzerland on valuation grounds which will tend to undermine the franc.

The dollar remained under pressure against the franc during the week and was subjected to further losses on technical ground once support in the 0.93 area was broken and the currency dipped to 2012 lows near 0.9150 before a corrective recovery. The Euro was unable to gain any sustained traction above the 1.21 area.
This Euro under-performance against the Swiss currency will be a cause of concern for the National Bank and there will be the potential for further verbal intervention.  

In comments on Tuesday, National Bank member Danthine reiterated that the bank would defend the minimum Euro level with the utmost determination and would block franc gains with unlimited buying of overseas currencies if required.


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Australian dollar

The Australian dollar maintained a strong tone during the first half of the week and advanced to 2012 highs against the US currency with a peak in the 1.07 area. There was a general improvement in risk appetite which helped underpin the currency and the Australian currency gained support on yield grounds, especially after the more dovish Federal Reserve stance.

Fears over the Asian economy eased which helped underpin the Australian currency, although there were still doubts surrounding the Chinese outlook which will be tested once China returns from the week-long holiday break.

The Australian dollar will continue to be subjected to high volatility and it will be difficult to advance much further even with solid yield support.

Canadian dollar:

The Canadian dollar gained support from international considerations during the week and pushed to a peak just beyond parity against the US currency before correcting slightly. Risk appetite was generally firmer and commodity prices were generally resilient. The domestic influences were limited with the retail sales data broadly in line with expectations.  

The Canadian currency should prove to be broadly resilient, although it will be difficult to extend gains much beyond parity as longer-term selling will increase.

Indian rupee:

The rupee maintained a solid tone during the week and again challenged resistance levels just beyond the 50 level against the US dollar before correcting slightly weaker. There was firm dollar demand by oil importers which stemmed rupee gains.

Risk appetite was generally firmer which helped underpin confidence and there was also suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank which helped underpin the currency. Interest rates were left on hold, but there was a cut in reserve ratios.

Although resilient, it will be difficult for the rupee to extend gains given the underlying risk profile and uncertainties surrounding the Indian economy.


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Hong Kong dollar

The Hong Kong dollar maintained a firm tone during the week and advanced to a high just beyond the 7.76 level against the US currency as risk appetite maintained a firmer tone.  Local markets were closed for the first three days of the week which dampened activity and there were no influences from Chinese markets which were closed.  

Risk conditions will remain very important and any fresh doubts surrounding the Chinese outlook would limit the scope for Hong Kong dollar gains.

Chinese yuan:

Chinese markets were closed for the Lunar New-Year holiday

 

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